The ruble is not the time rid of oil

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On Tuesday, may 8, the ruble weakened against foreign currencies, despite the continued rally in the oil market. Under the influence of a strong dollar “Russian” still vulnerable, although in recent days the dollar holds below $ 64 RUB to Weaken the influence of the dollar factor in the coming weeks can high oil prices, coupled with the tax period, while geopolitics will continue to play against our currency.
In recent years we have seen the loss of connection of the Russian currency with the dynamics of oil prices. An important role plays the behavior of the dollar on international markets, where it updates the highs of the current year due to the growth of expectations on the rates of the Federal reserve. But also contributed to the current situation making your daily purchase of foreign currency to the Ministry of Finance for a windfall from oil exports, and judging by the growing prices for oil, these purchases can be increased to a new record volume.
This hampers the wellbeing of the ruble, along with the continuing concerns over geopolitics.
In the short term we can see attempts of strengthening the “Russians” who try to use the local retreat of the dollar, which fell everywhere in Asia and new breakthrough oil prices to fresh a 3.5-year highs in the area of 77,80. If in the coming hours, the demand for the dollar will not return, the pair dollar/ruble in the first half of the session will test the level of 63 RUB and could challenge the 20-day moving average at 62,20, below which the prices have not been down since the beginning of April.
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Igor Kovalyov,
Analyst
InstaForex companies group