The ruble is not afraid of the “slippery” trump, at a meeting in Helsinki

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The us dollar on global platforms continues slow “life-giving” correction. As of 11:00 Moscow time the dollar Index DXY down to the level 93,91. The main subject of concern of international investors is unachievable with the fed’s plans for the rapid increase in the key interest rates and, as a consequence, the risk of revaluation of investment return of financial instruments United States for the worse. In this respect a very important complement to the overall picture of the signal must now come from the statistics on producer prices in the United States.
If unsure of the statistics on unemployment in the USA will be supplemented by another evidence of low inflation, the chance that a fourfold increase in the discount rate the fed to end the current year can be considered zero.
Also today we await the publication of the monthly report of OPEC, which can give an additional boost to oil prices, reinforcing the effect of the expected evening of traditional publishing US Department of energy on oil reserves, which, judging by yesterday’s pre-release from the American petroleum Institute (API weekly crude oil inventories according to their version fell by 6.8 million barrels) is due out in a positive for oil prices the key.
Considering all the above, the Russian ruble gradually straightens his shoulders – as of noon GMT it is traded against the dollar at RUB 17 62 kopecks, and the Euro – 72 RUB 78 kopecks lower (better) for their important technical levels and 62,50 73,00, respectively. Though to speak about a steady trend of strengthening in the conditions of tough fiscal and tax measures of the government, there is no reason. Rather, in the best case we can expect some stabilization of the picture near current levels, which will allow us to experience the traditionally problematic August with minimal losses – especially if the meeting between Putin and trump in Helsinki will be anything positive.
In the meantime, we see that trump is going to pedal most sensitive for Moscow theme – preservation of the dominant role of NATO in the absence of sponsorship from the United States, including the impact of the implementation of the project “Nord stream-2” and “excessive dependence” of Germany on energy supplies from Russia – it is obvious that these are issues on which compromise with Moscow the Americans to achieve a priori will fail. Will then have any value negotiations on Syria and Ukraine – the question is polemical.
On the other hand, markets expect the meeting between Putin and trump some minimal hints that the risks of new rounds of sanctions against Russia in the coming months will decline. Even given the low chance of successful negotiations on the above-mentioned “slippery” topics leaders is critically needed to cling to some joint projects, as the complete failure of talks with Putin in the same way in which it will be negative for the Russian economy and the ruble – would mean political defeat of diplomacy trump that, first, hit hard on the ego of the American President, and secondly, will worsen the already low level of mutual understanding between him and Congress.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International financial center”