The ruble is losing ground, obeying the universal negative
The Russian currency on Friday cautiously takes the position, during low activity of trading after the holiday. In General, the ruble is behaving suspiciously quietly, while the world markets are these days experiencing a real storm. So, the pair USDRUB Monday ranged between 65.00 and 65.50, touching the upper level this morning. EURRUB, in turn, goes around and around 73.
However, the ruble can also stay away from the recovery in risk appetite. This is facilitated by measures of the Central Bank of Turkey, which is trying to protect dramatically surrendered position lyre. No less important, and the first growth of the Chinese markets since the beginning of the month. The current dynamics are more similar to Friday’s profit taking after a sharp movement, that is, looks short-term momentum.
Another positive for the Russian currency is the return of Brent above $70 per barrel. From the technical analysis, crude oil has stood in the period of maximum market fears, getting support in the form of 200-day moving average. Often it is regarded as a signal of the predominance of optimistic attitude. Another positive signal came from moving averages: bottom-up MA50 crossed the MA200. In the markets this is called the “Golden cross”, foreshadowing the development of a bullish trend with growth prospects above $75.
Friday morning turn to growth in the stock markets, as well as the strengthening of the Turkish Lira, reasonable to regard as bounce within the broader down-trend. On the other hand, positive signals from oil prices may hinder the retreat of the ruble from local minima, leaving the course and near 65.50 73.00 in the first half of next week.
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