The ruble is ignoring the mounting tension
This week sometimes it seems that financial markets are on the verge of a big decline sharply going from phase a rousing rally to minimize risk positions. However, the ruble froze and refused to move until the third day to a series pair marking around 65.25 USDRUB and EURRUB – 73.15. For comparison, the Turkish Lira fell for these days at 3.7%, the British pound 1.3%.
Important indicators intraday dynamics of the ruble – oil and the key stock indices is noticeably losing ground. Brent loses 1.8%, S&P500 – 2.7%, Shanghai China A50 – 5.3%.
Attributed to the stability of the ruble during the may holidays will not either: for example, last week, reduced liquidity in the markets just opposite, was the cause of the increased amplitude of fluctuations of the Russian currency.
Probably the thing to shift the focus of global investors. Earlier, the rouble was laid expectations of the risk of sanctions. However, in recent days, the attention of the US administration confined to China and Iran, giving the ruble a little bit of “catch my breath”.
However, we can hardly expect that it always will be. In comparison with other developing countries, Russia has attractive financial characteristics (low debt levels, declining inflation, and an impressive foreign trade surplus). However, we repeatedly noticed that in the case of strong turbulence on global financial markets, the ruble at some point starts to catch up with the global trend, following the adage that “Russian long harness, but ride fast”.
Looking back at the development of the decline in world indices, minus the oil, not feeling that just like to sit at the ruble will not work. Chances are high that at some point the Russian currency will rush to catch up with the others.
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