The ruble is holding you back from growth, the threat of new sanctions

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Ruble pair on Friday partially corrected, but it is obvious that the ruble continues to be played the only trump card that everyone already said. The US dollar to the present worth of 66.00 RUB and rises by 0.2%. Euro regains 0.3% and is trading at 74,88 RUB rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the weekend and on Monday, November 19, are 65,99 RUB per U.S. dollar (reduced by 0.62 kopecks) and of 74.90 rubles for Euro (reduced by 0.63).
Oil continues the restoration. The market is quite calm about the clearly bearish data from the US Department of energy, where oil reserves rose for the week by more than 10 million barrels, and extraction of raw materials, updated the historical record and amounted to 11.7 million barrels per day. At the same time increased the download of the refinery (up to 90,1% 90,0% previously). If not total re-oil before, this Luggage would be enough to renew the local lows on Brent. But the market started buying earlier than published statistics and was not ready to stop.
To date, a barrel of Brent crude oil is trading higher by 1.5% and costs $67,63.
The ruble delay of strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions is a local factor, although even in this version, this theme looks weird. Deferral of sanctions – it does not mean their abolition means that as soon as Congress finds time to deal with this topic, need the nuts to be screwed. At the same time, it must be admitted that the ruble is now a unique situation: the only significant catalyst is the subject of sanctions, eliminate her and get the 60 ruble RUB at least.
The US dollar will finish the session on Friday in the range 65,80-66,45 rubles., the Euro closed the day and week in the hallway 74,65-75,50 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari