The ruble is growing, despite the negative external background
In the global financial markets in the morning again discussed the topic of the UK, where still the theme of Brexit is in a deadlock state after the devastating vote against the project of withdrawal from the EU, courtesy of Theresa may, followed by voting on the motions of censure against Prime-Minister himself.
However, although the position may and her suggestions and encounter fierce criticism in the British Parliament, apparently, her place while nobody will be able to do, because, though by a small margin, but she won the last vote and got a “vote of confidence”.
The pound reacted very cautiously – fatigue affects investors from permanent “interim” decisions and final, and the desire already clearly see the completion of the history of the EU. The uncertainty for business is worse than a crisis, as does the main thing – understanding how it should act. As a result, prolonged inactivity gradually de-energizes the economy – investments not in a hurry to come because of uncertain conditions of their return, jobs are created, the company offices, for example, leading banks are closed and move to the continent.
“Brakcet” no transaction in 2019, could lead to a reduction in UK GDP of 8%, this official said, the Bank of England. In the worst scenario of development of residential property prices, which is traditionally considered an excellent option of funds will fall by a third, and unemployment in the country can grow almost twice.
It bumerangom impact on the EU economy and on the economies of its closest trading partners, including Russia. Until the beginning of the year for our country is very optimistic – the ruble is growing and has reached 66,40 in tandem with the dollar, crude oil had recovered to a minimum last year and is at the 60,57 on oil prices, the sanctions have not yet been in the focus of attention, and on this background even the return of the CBR, 15 Jan began to buy foreign currency, did not prevent the strengthening of the national currency.
But the current recovery is seen as an unexpected bonus from the market, but not as a given, because globally, nothing has changed – the sanctions will be back in the spotlight, as only in America will end the shutdown. Also over the tax period, and gradually the volume of purchases of foreign currency in the framework of fiscal rules will increase, which will direct interventions against the ruble (and it is worth remembering that in addition to the new purchases, the Central Bank will have to sell more stocks rubles to $30 billion, which resulted from a long pause in purchases from August 2018).
Because probably already at the latest by the end of the quarter mark of 69 rubles per dollar will again be at the terminals of the currency traders.
“International financial center”