The ruble is going down behind the oil

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On Tuesday, November 13, at the end of the trading session on the Moscow exchange rate of the us dollar calculations “tomorrow” increased by 28 kopecks (+0,42%), up to about 68.13 Euro – by 65 kopecks (+0,85%) to RUB 76,87
Trading ruble ended in the red. Strong pressure was exerted on him by the oil market. Despite the weakening of the ruble felt very good. By reducing oil prices by 6.5%, it fell against the US dollar by 0.42%. From the strong fall of the ruble kept weakening of the U.S. dollar in the Forex market, as well as the increase of index of Russian government bonds (RGBI).
Index RGBI has grown on 0,14%, to 132.50 points. The price of Brent crude oil fell to $64,63 per barrel. The market was sensitive to the statements of the us President Donald trump, head of the International energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, and the published forecast of OPEC.
Donald trump advised the OPEC not to reduce oil production. But Birol warned about the risk of an oil shortage on the world market by mid-2020 and to avoid it invited the United States to increase production to 10 million barrels per day.
OPEC lowered the growth rate of oil demand in 2018, from 1.54 million barrels per day to 1.50 million barrels per day, and the forecast for 2019 was reduced by 70 thousand barrels per day to 1.29 million barrels per day. Forecast production outside OPEC for the year 2019 was increased by 120,000 barrels per day.
Judging by the fall in oil prices, the big players closed long positions, and short-term speculators played on the slide through the opening of short positions.
On Wednesday the price of Brent konsolidiruyutsya at $65,24. For the ruble right now is no support from the oil market. He can temporarily help the approaching tax period and today’s auction the Ministry of Finance. The Agency plans to hold auctions for placement of two OFZ issues in total amount of 10 billion rubles.
Today expect the pair dollar/ruble in the price range 67,30 – 68,20 RUB and Euro/ruble – between levels 75,95 – 77,25 € If the Euro will once again fall below RUB of 76.30, the drop will increase to 75,45 RUB For dollar support is at the level 67,30 RUB.
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Vladislav Antonov,
Analyst
Alpari