The ruble is falling, the next auction of the Ministry of Finance failed
Auction of the Ministry of Finance failed. The fed raised the interest rate. Waiting for a response from the ECB and the Bank of Russia.
On the eve of the Ministry of Finance held an auction on placement of Federal loan bonds. Once again, the Minister Anton Siluanov failed to place the entire amount of the offered securities.
If the ten-year OFZ with reference to the inflation sold in full among investors, here is a classic OFZ maturing 2021 was able to realize not completely. The reason for the low demand for domestic bonds is associated with the loss carry-trade. Previously high interest rates on Russian securities provided an inflow of foreign capital to the Russian market.
Foreigners exchanged currency for the ruble, to buy bonds and, as a plus, has earned a very good yield with the growth of “wood”. Now rates have dropped, the ruble fell. Yield is much more interesting from the point of view of security of us securities have increased significantly and investors are leaving EN masse due to domestic securities. It can not affect the dollar.
Today at auction Moscow stock exchange for one unit of U.S. currency give 62 rubles 15 kopecks, the Euro is trading around 73 rubles 45 kopecks. The MICEX index dipped to 2260 points, the quotes of Brent crude oil once again traded above $ 76 per barrel. Bitcoins according to the website CoinMarketCap is held in the area of $ 6500.
On the eve of the US Federal reserve raised its key interest rate to 2%. The fed’s decision was expected. Today, a similar decision will be made by the European regulator, however, there is no intrigue there. Most likely the ECB will keep rates near zero, but the market will wait for further signals on tapering of quantitative easing in Europe. Tomorrow its decision on the key rate will announce the Bank of Russia.
In terms of growth rates in the United States, instability in the financial markets and the possible acceleration of inflation in the near future, it is unlikely that the team of Elvira Nabiullina to ease monetary policy. Most likely bet will be so stored at the level of 7.25%.
As for the situation on the Russian currency market, we said earlier that the ruble will not a simple summer. If the first half of the holiday season may be observed in the relative stability of the ruble, here closer to August, most likely the domestic currency will rapidly depreciate and it is likely that by the fall we will see new highs in the USD/ruble.
The head of the analytical Department of the company,