The ruble is dead or still alive?

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And again, professional “mourners” are predicting the collapse of the ruble. This process occurs fairly regularly, it can be noted that the reaction to the sanctions has become an excellent source to drive the value of a currency much stronger than their action. Of course, there is the purchase of foreign exchange by the Ministry of Finance (now CBA), as well as issues on external debt payments, but these factors are not sufficient for the collapse of the ruble, and default.
In the short term, speculative capital, and the government was able to create tension, which reduces the value of the domestic currency, but its long-term impact is not enough objective conditions.
Yes, market participants put the position against the ruble, although he greatly underestimated, and the government continues to fill the Federal budget due to the receipt of proceeds from exporters, but it is already possible to note the point of resistance below which not ready to go down neither one nor the other. In the near future the ruble will remain in the corridor of 65-70 per dollar.
Support will remain the real economy and increase export revenues by 50% by August 2018 and the increase in gold reserves outside the United States, including in drag. metals. Data for real GDP and the growth of direct investment into the country attract big business, in contrast to speculators, therefore the substitution of capital continues.
Regarding the situation at the end of the year, here come the factors of the plan – Prexit in the EU, the Senate elections in the United States, new sanctions, after the acute phase in Syria and the rise of the key rate of the Federal reserve and the Bank of Russia on 0,5. It can be noted that the Euro will cost below a dollar, and the ruble will gradually move to the corridor 60-65 per dollar, so the Finance Ministry is calm about his future.
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Vladimir Peysatyh
Analyst
LLC “Analytical center “Salsbery”