The ruble in the red, investors are buying the dollar and the Euro
The Russian ruble weakened on Tuesday to a basket of currencies — support of the tax period a natural melts, even though the oil in the black. “Russian” could choose any of the scenarios, because it is quite divorced from reality. But investors trust the dollar and the Euro, and the ruble lower. Oil in a stable position — the barrel of Brent recovered to $58,83, a larger correction after yesterday’s breakdown.
More attention is now being paid to the upcoming September 6 meeting of the Central Bank and its decisions. The main opinion is that the key rate will be reduced by 25 basis points, to 7.00% per annum. This may support the ruble, because the market receives a signal that the Bank of Russia is consistent in its actions and steps.
Meanwhile, the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin eve noted that in a scenario with a low 3% inflation for the year 2020 already pledged a significant monetary policy easing. The size of the key rate, which is taken into account in this optimistic forecast, is unknown. But certainly we can say that the banking system will not be happy, because the banks earn on credit products, it is unprofitable to lower the rates, but they will be forced to do it.
It seems that even with a strong desire and capabilities of the Central Bank to lower the rate further below 6.50% per annum, as the resources of the economy for this. The US dollar today protorguetsya within 66,25-of 66.65 RUB, the probability of a stronger dollar is great. The Euro rose to RUB 73,76 and can rise up to 73.85 RUB.
“Information-analytical center “Alpari”