The ruble in September: the Dollar 67 and 74 of the Euro?
In the last week of August, the ruble was again close to important round levels against the dollar and Euro 67 and 74 respectively. Neat the decrease left USDRUB from 66.71 in the end of the day Thursday and EURRUB have 73.86.
Note that the quotes were raised in this area in the middle of the month, but the ruble then received support in the form of approximation of the tax period and the strengthening of the oil. However, by the end of the month was clearly seen a fundamental change in the market: if in the first half of the year the Russian currency has ignored bad news, now not to notice the periods of the surge of interest in risky assets. Although very willing to work out the decline of oil and the flight of the profitable assets in safe or liquid.
In addition to external factors, also exhibits more internal fundamental reasons for reducing the demand for the ruble.
The end of the year often passes for Russian companies under the payment of external debt, which increases demand for the currency and undermines the exchange rate. Do not forget also about the increased dividend began to pay the largest domestic companies: they not only go to the state budget, but foreign investors prefer cash income to the end of the year.
In parallel, the government increases the budget expenditures. In the first months of the year, the MOF sold a record amount in the BFL, “pylesos” the market and thereby fueling the demand for the ruble as rubles could buy these high-yielding paper. Now the activity of placements fell sharply, and, moreover, the economy began to leak money to ambitious projects. All this increases the supply of rubles on the market, putting pressure on the exchange rate.
We should not forget about the reduction of the key rate by the Bank of Russia. The slowdown in the Russian economy and inflation opens the door for further easing policy that leads to decrease of profitability of Russian securities. Currently most of the world’s Central Bank soften its policy, however, the Bank of Russia, there is clearly much more space to maneuver.
We need to mention a technical or psychological factor. USDRUB is on the threshold 67, risking to go beyond the usual trading range. Going beyond the upper limit can start a massive sell-off, thus signaling that the dollar/ruble rose to the next level in its long ascent.
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