The ruble in anticipation of the decisions of the Central Bank’s interest rate

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Major world stock indexes on Tuesday showed strong growth. Against this background, rose and Russian indexes. At the end of the day the ruble Mosberg index added 0,94%, dollar-denominated RTS index rose 1.02%. Among leaders of growth – “Rosneft” (+4.26 per cent) and “LUKOIL” (+1,59%). The Chinese market is closed today in observance of the national New year. The remaining work of the Asia Pacific region markets showed a morning increase of 0.2-0.4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 index was trading in the morning about 2732 points, 0.05% higher than the closing levels of the previous trading day.
Before opening of the Russian stock market external background can be assessed as moderately positive: the growth of the remaining work to Asian markets and stable oil prices give hope for the best. Likely day trading corridor by index Mosberg is in the range of values 2520-2570 points, RTS index — in the range 1220-1245 points.
The ruble on Tuesday demonstrated the different dynamics of the major foreign currencies. At the end of the day on the Moscow exchange, the dollar calculations “tomorrow” rose to 65,6200 roubles (+3 kopeks), and the European currency declined to 74,8800 roubles (-12 kopeks). It happened with the decline of the currency pair EUR/USD on the global market with 1,1435 to 1,1405. The ruble had some support information on reducing the volume of purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance in the budgetary rules. Recall that the Finance Ministry will reduce the planned volume of purchases of foreign currency in the framework of fiscal rules in the period from 7 February to 6 March to 194,0 billion RUB from 265,8 billion rubles in January.
The focus of attention of the market is Friday, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which, however, nobody waits for a change in the current level of the key rate to 7.75% per annum. Today we expect a neutral opening of trading the ruble near yesterday’s closing levels. Likely daily range of movement for the US dollar amounts of 65.0-66,3 rubles, for European currency — 74,1-of 75.6 RUB.
In the morning of Wednesday oil prices were steady in a very narrow range of $61,9-$62,1 per barrel. Expected daily range current trading for Brent crude is $61,4-$62.6 per barrel.
Vadim Iosub,
Senior analyst at information-analytical center,