The ruble has weakened to suit the interests of all
The Ministry is waiting for a weaker ruble in the second half of 2019. The official report suggests that, on average, in 2019, the dollar exchange rate amounted to 65.1 rubles, while the previous forecast assumed level at 63.9 RUB Office, among other things, drew attention to the fact that in the first quarter of the ruble is weaker than expected and cost an average 66,2 RUB/USD instead of the predicted 64,2 RUB/USD. This is clearly no accident, and not only because of seasonal factors, the anticipated decline in oil prices and the continuation of the interventions of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market.
What if authorities need a controlled devaluation of the ruble in order to create exporters more comfortable conditions for work and filling of the budget, and the weakening of the national currency to “collect” from the population for more money (to fill the budget, of course)? What if the argument that people in Russia is the “new oil”, now gain real practical sense? And in this case, higher taxes and the devaluation of the ruble can increase revenues, without making any special effort. Who will win if this is true?
The beneficiary here is one — state, but not the population. The population will become poorer, poorer, look for a better product and delight Rosstat stability in the labour market. But otherwise, if the main fear of ordinary Russians is again the fear of the workplace? The employer does not even need to try to compete for labor resources — people will come, just promise them stability.
How likely is this scenario? Very likely. And, most likely, at the end of the year the dollar will be even higher than predicted economic development levels, on average, 1.5-4%.
Meantime on the currency market more or less stable. The US dollar by mid-day trading on Wednesday, retreating and trading at RUB of 64.59 (-0,5%), the Euro fell by 0.4% and is at the level of Courses 72,85 RUB the Bank of Russia for tomorrow, April 11, is lowered for both currencies and make 64,73 RUB/USD (reduced by 4 cents) and the amount 72,94 RUB/EUR (reduced by 3 pennies). ________________
Senior analyst at information-analytical center “Alpari”