The ruble has suffered from the widespread growth of the dollar
Despite growing oil prices, the ruble is trading lower Tuesday, succumbing to the widespread strengthening of the dollar. The U.S. currency is in demand on expectations of strong data on retail sales in the United States, which may weaken expectations of aggressive easing from the fed.
The pair dollar/ruble, who recently went down in the area of support 62,50 RUB, said daytime highs on 62,85 RUB, still experiencing shortage of momentum for a breakout of the level of 63 RUB.
Another factor that influenced the local deviation of the ruble, was the revival of “American” due to the weakening of the Euro in the Forex market after the release of weak data from Germany and Eurozone, which increased the likelihood of use of additional stimulus by the ECB. By the way, the Euro/ruble trading at more than 1-year lows in the area of 70.40 RUB.
At this stage the potential for further weakening of our currency, appears to be limited due to the beginning of the tax period in Russia, the prospect of the fed rate and relatively stable oil prices. Brent is still unable to break through to the level of 67 dollars per barrel, but is trading on the upside on the intraday charts waiting for the API data on stocks of crude oil in the United States. Another drop in inventory locally able to support the quotes, but downside risks in the commodity segment is still preserved amid fears of cooling global demand.
In the short term, the pair is likely to continue to stagnate under the mark of 63 rubles., and there is a risk of renewed growth of the ruble in the event of a return sellers of the American currency, if statistics from the United States to disappoint.
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