The ruble has stopped growing, the rally came to an end
Russian ruble moderately handed over the position on Tuesday. The USD / RUB pair gained 6 cents on the day, falling to 65.89. EURRUB rose 19 cents, to 77.56.
The weakening of the ruble was in contrast with the positive dynamics of emerging markets and capacity of oil. Despite the fact that Brent at the end of the auction on Tuesday retreated from 4-year peaks, she managed to add 0.6% for the past day, rewriting a 4-year high of 81.78.
Such a separation from the external circumstances once again confirms our hypothesis that the purchase of the ruble earlier was more of an emotional movement than a serious shopping investors.
We have noted the decrease in trading volumes on the Russian stock exchange as a signal of exhaustion of the current movement. The strengthening of oil also was rather emotional support for the last phase of growth of the ruble, rather than a fundamental reason to strengthen it.
However, the dynamics of volumes allows to say that the ruble, levels of achievement, will return to the weakening. It’s more like impulsive profit, in connection with a new episode of the weakening of the Argentine peso on Tuesday.
External background Asian markets remains strong: Chinese companies are developing recovery, reaching two-month highs, in spite of the threat of the negative impact of trade wars.
It is likely that the Russian ruble and stocks will be able to avoid today during the day strong fluctuations. Markets may take a pause, waiting for the signals from fed. Bank of America today needs to raise and will probably give hints of another increase before the end of the year. This event, in the main, already laid down in quotes, and therefore the focus of traders will be focused on the forecasts for the longer term. This fact can influence on quotations of the dollar and stock indices.