The ruble has stabilized, but there were a lot of questions
The ruble at the beginning of today’s trading took the moderate position risk-off, under the influence of which has weakened to levels last Friday, 65,92 rubles per dollar, but closer to the level 66 approach could not, and as of 14:30 firmed up to 65,56 to lock in profits. In tandem with the Euro, the domestic currency is trading at 74,80.
On the market, the debate continues in the style of “Nation Divided” (“the split of the Nation”) about which the ruble basis for the current stability. Reason, in fact, a little bit, but they are still there. The ruble fell heavily “against oil” most of 2018 not only by accomplished new sanctions, but waiting for their next, even more terrible, the portions, which by and large did not come.
Yes, the story with a Merman and hard beating (differently you will not name!) Oleg Deripaska, the Ministry of Finance of the USA has been unprecedented in fact, but known as isolated from the influence of “broad” economy – on the other side.
Blocking foreign dollar accounts of Russian banks in fact did not happen, from instant Bank communication SWIFT off not only did not happen, but there’s an alternative system (and in collaboration on this project noticed even Europe!), hard veto on investment in the Russian OFZ – again! – it was not announced. But the ruble since the beginning of the year weakened by 17.5%, given the simultaneous increase of oil by 25%, looks very interesting and very unusual.
We have last week passed one of the least noticeable (or rather, the least noticed by the market) meetings of the Bank of Russia in recent years. One of the most interesting themes in the background is the comments on raising the growth forecast for GDP to 1.7% and, accordingly, the promise to revise the rating to “investment grade” by Moody’s.
Even more interesting clarifying comments Moody’s subsequently: the introduction of new sanctions unlikely to affect this decision. On the market from time to time there are rumors that in November will be updated a new package of anti-Russian sanctions. Us about this is not known, and, moreover, the American Congress than there is now, ahead of the extremely dramatic parliamentary elections, relatively speaking, to do.
Furthermore, the placement of OFZ, which is traditionally seen as an indicator of “sanctions-resistant” in investor sentiment, also did not affect the ruble – thus, it is likely that not the internal and external factors, seize the initiative, and will continue to play a major role in the exchange rate of the Russian currency.
This week will be quite interesting external macroeconomic calendar. The center of attention – U.S. data, which focuses on the fed: inflation indicator, the PCE, the number of new jobs outside agriculture Non-farm payrolls, as well as interesting leading indicator, sales of cars (US Car sales). At the same time, the latest data from the CFTC show that in the penultimate week of October with the net open long positions on the us dollar decreased by $1.3 billion to $26.825 (in the previous reporting period has been achieved record December 2016, value of $28.1 billion). This also argues in favor of a small correction in the “green” following the stock indexes of the United States.
“International financial center”