The ruble has infected the oil euphoria, but it is not long enough
Last week, the ruble recorded a slight change against the dollar, demonstrating in the course of five days V-shaped movement, and strengthened against the single European currency.
Until Wednesday night, USD/RUB has rallied amid rise in consumer sentiment of the players in the dollar ahead of the fed meeting. In General, the fed told the markets anything new and gave to understand that remained moderately hawkish intentions for the medium term. The open market Committee also gave some hints that monetary tightening will not be aggressive even when exceeding the inflation target level.
Given the fact that the foreign exchange market has managed to lay in the dynamics of the American currency expectations of a rate hike before the fed meeting, after Wednesday (the publication of the results of the meeting), the motivation of the dollar bulls is markedly weakened. In addition, in favor of the ruble began to play a rapid rebound in oil prices, which started on Thursday, and the USD/RUB made locally turn to the South.
At the start of a new week the investment community excited tweet Donald trump, reported ready to announce his decision on the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program on Tuesday, i.e. today. This means that ahead the global markets can be a new outbreak of volatility.
However, in our opinion, even if trump decides to withdraw from the nuclear deal with Iran, oil prices are unlikely to continue as a rapid ascent, which was observed during the last session – the prospect of another trunovskogo demarche was considered by the players and incorporated in market dynamics, and the price of black gold is hardly ready to rise significantly above $70. Accordingly, the ruble great feats in the short term is not expected.
From a technical point of view, on 4-hour chart is the place the consolidation movement, and at this stage the signals are mixed.
In the 4 hours chart the course konsolidiruyutsya over the support, located just above 74, and subject to the provisions of the stochastic lines may take a rebound in the short term.
A leading analyst of Department of the analysis of world markets,