The ruble has ignored the collapse of oil, surprising its durability

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On Friday, the ruble was trading listlessly in a basket of currencies. The US dollar by mid-day 65,68 RUB and retreating 0.06 percent. The Euro increased 0.2 percent and is trading at 75,13 RUB the Russian Central Bank has announced for the next four days the following courses: 65,57 RUB/USD (-8 cents) and 74,99 RUB/EUR (+41 kopecks).
Oil prices have ceased to fall. A day in the market of raw materials there is more stabilization than any meaningful rebound. Investors are still hesitating what to do next, while the technical picture for raw materials is quite clearly bearish. A barrel of Brent to the present time worth $73,12 (+0,3%), to maintain the probability of decreasing to $72, if the market will get a new reason for the reactions.
Monday, November 5, come into force the full US sanctions against Iran, the country loses the ability to export its oil. However, before it became known that India and South Korea will still be able to buy Iranian oil – for them in the sanctions regime made exceptions. Simultaneously long-term negative for the market are news about the expansion of commodity production is not only Saudi Arabia and Russia, and the United States.
The ruble, as usual lately, did not respond evening the failure of oil to nine-month-old “the bottom”. Maybe the market simply ceased to be afraid and focused on one factor: the probability of external tightening of the sanctions regime. Maybe the value of the ruble has a potential correction in oil, because it was obvious that the trees do not grow to the skies. It is likely that the role played by the low level of market liquidity. Tax period ended a few days ago, so it does not take into account. All this allows the ruble to stand still, but for how long?
The U.S. dollar closed the session on Friday in the range of 65.50- € 65,95 RUB will go away for a weekend in the range of 74.90-75,35 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari