The ruble has great immunity to external negativity
The ruble in the morning hardly were considerably strengthened, however, the first working day after the holidays and lack of important macro economic publications on the background of the main global markets event – waiting for the results of Midterms – elections to the Parliament of the United States – initially determined the mode of tense expectation, when the players are too afraid not to guess with their political “stakes” in order to rush headlong into the maelstrom. This could be seen as something akin to bookmaking, i.e. a completely different business!
Speaking about the American factor, a recent poll published in ABC News, shows that registered voters prefer candidates from the Democratic party in the House of representatives in the ratio of 50 to 43 percent, and, interestingly, this fork has expanded in recent months. The Democrats ‘ victory in the nomination of the majority in the House of representatives, we understand, will significantly worsen the position of trump, that threatens, at least, increased volatility of global markets, and even, under certain circumstances, the beginning of the full correction of the stock indices in the United States.
In fact, today American voters will not be routine to vote for their representatives in Parliament. As the markets understand it, today will be a kind of referendum of agreement or disagreement with the Americans and what changes they feel and see around me to the end of the first half of the presidential line, “Mr. contradiction” of Donald trump.
Yet as of 14:00 GMT sluggish trading continues in the range 65,75-66,10 (current value 65,96 rubles per dollar). An interesting fact is that the reduction of the cost of a barrel of oil by 8.5% from the October peak, not always fundamentally justified, the factors that gradually led to a shift in the trade channel in the ruble with 65,30-65,70 65,50 to the present-of 66.00 (yesterday he was even slightly weaker than in the cross-rate, but thanks to some stabilization of oil prices on the factor of the introduction of Iranian sanctions this morning, he barely strengthened.
The ruble, however, one of the most immunized from the influence of these destructive processes currencies excluding the Chinese yuan. Nevertheless, “flight to the dollar” in a scenario of getting Democrats a majority in one of the two houses of Congress, and the associated growth of political instability in the US – not cancel can.
Though to a lesser extent, but do not completely discount the factor of “black gold” that has made the Russian Federal budget is clearly in surplus, and this surplus is currently highest since 2012. However, it should be noted that reducing the cost of a barrel of oil by 8.5% from the peak reached on 9 October, led to a shift in the trade channel in the ruble with 65,30-65,70 65,50 to the present-of 66.00 (5 November he was even slightly weaker, but due to the stabilization of oil prices on the Iranian factor in the imposition of sanctions, the ruble returned to its new range). Thus, the interdependence of the ruble-oil looks like a kind of financial the semiconductor, since it only works in one direction.
“International Financial Center”