The ruble has good perspectives to strengthen

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The theme of the growth of demand for Russian debt in the context of the forecasts of the ruble is becoming day by day (more precisely, the week of weeks) all the more interesting. Another success at yesterday’s auction the Ministry of Finance joined the army of the optimists, though it cannot be denied that the Ministry of Finance to a certain extent, “forges the iron is hot” (that is, until no new sanctions). We will remind that the Ministry of Finance into the placement of the three new tranches on Wednesday performed its quarterly plan offerings in 600 billion roubles, and in April managed to place securities on the record 403.8 billion.
The Bank of Russia announced that foreign investors in the past month was very active in purchases of OFZ bonds, with the result that their share rose in these papers from 26.2% to 27.1%. Interestingly, dynamically, their share in recent months greatly increased: of all placed OFZ in April, non-residents bought 41.6%. From the report of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, however, means that foreign investors reduced their “no long” (a long position) at the ruble on the foreign exchange swap market — the reason is the cessation of growth of rouble rates. Position in swaps declined from just over $10 billion to $5.7 billion.
Thus, as the formation of the growth factor of interest of non-residents to the national debt, the oil factor in the exchange rate of the ruble, on the contrary, oddly enough, goes by the wayside. Oil prices responded with a drop to 20 cents on the data of the US Department of energy, which contrary to expectations showed substantial growth of reserves of “black gold”, but the ruble against this background, continued to strengthen, ending yesterday’s trading session higher by half a percent.
It must be borne in mind that unemployment in the US recede into the background amid political turmoil around the oil-rich Iran with its constant appeals to the US “not to overreact”, alluding to its ability to block vital for 60% neftyannik transport of the Eastern hemisphere the Strait of Hormuz. On the positive side, the US Department of energy reported that gasoline inventories declined again, as well as daily production of oil, which decreased by 100 thousand barrels.
Total: crude oil Inventories increased by 5.43 million barrels in the forecast -1.20 million barrels a week earlier, data -3.96 million barrels. A strategic reserve of crude oil also fell to 1.764 million barrels to 645.953 million barrels. Oil imports in the United States during the reporting period, added almost half a million barrels a day to 7.612 million barrels a day.
In addition, in the US yesterday came out not too rosy news. Retail sales in wide and narrow (excluding cars) in April fell by 0.2% m/m, with forecast growth of 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively, in their growth at 1.2% m/m in March. Also disappointed falling by 0.5% m/m in April, industrial production.
The Euro declined against the dollar in the first half of yesterday’s trading, but then suddenly recovered from the losses after news that U.S. President postponed a decision on tariffs on imported European cars and parts for up to 6 months. 18 may — deadline that the White house should take a decision on the recommendations of the Ministry of trade, which was outlined in February. Most likely, trump has decided that the conduct of a trade war on several fronts at the same time extremely burdensome and better focused on China.
As of 12:30 GMT, the ruble continued to strengthen to 64.45 against the dollar and 72,26 in tandem with the Euro. It looks like today’s the day for the ruble will be successful.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
The expert “International financial centre”