The ruble has exhausted the growth potential against the dollar and the Euro

  • And
  • +A

Russian ruble on Wednesday traded lower in a basket of currencies. The US dollar to date is more expensive by 0.4% and is estimated at RUB 66,61 EUR rises by 0.4% and stands 75,90 RUB rates of the Central Bank of Russia for tomorrow, 18 January, reduced to the U.S. dollar and the Euro, to 66,44 RUB/USD (-32 cents) and 75,63 RUB/EUR (-50 cents), respectively.
The oil left in the minor. A barrel of North sea Brent crude costs $60,24 (-1,8%), WTI oil weaker, bigger, losing more than 2% ($at 51.48). Key news this week for raw is already out, they are priced in. Until then, while the barrel of Brent remains within short-term “sideways” $59,50-62,50, it makes no sense to talk about changing market sentiment.
The first auction of the Ministry of Finance in 2019 on placement of OFZ was more than confident. The Agency has sold three issues of bonds, with the result that attracted the entire planned amount of 35 billion rubles. moreover, it entailed high capital over the last six months, and the demand for paper was impressive. So, the order book editions of 15 billion rubles each were oversubscribed by an average of two times, release 5.1 billion. wanted to buy three times more investors than expected, the Ministry of Finance. Prices were quite competitive.
What is this miracle or lucky coincidence? Probably the latter, plus a bit of calculation: the Ministry of Finance did not hurry after the Christmas holidays and took a break to assess the situation, and it worked. On the one hand, the market became a bit more money speculators, on the other – geopolitical and economic backdrop against Russia now seem smooth and calm. This makes local purchases OFZ – the same well forgotten the carry trade is profitable.
However, this situation does not yet look trend. The effect of investor demand for OFZ, which was observed the day before, completely exhausted. The Russian currency is almost helpless in front of a drawdown in oil prices, because in this case, support from the tax period will be unobtrusive. The US dollar closed trading Thursday in the hallway of 6.45-RUB 66,95 euros, will complete the day within the boundaries of 75,50-76,50 RUB.
____________
Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst at information-analytical center,
Alpari