The ruble for a long time deprived of oil support

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OPEC agree to increase oil production. The Chinese Central Bank is preparing for a trade war with the United States. The ruble is waiting for the next drop.
As expected the members of OPEC and other major oil producers failed to agree on increasing the production by 1 million barrels per day. The size of the nominal increase production, in fact the cartel will be able to increase production only 600 thousand barrels due to the lack of the ability of increased production from some members of the cartel. The decision was expected, so oil prices do not react significantly to this event.
Meanwhile, China’s Central Bank is preparing for a trade war with the United States of America. The regulator of China reduces reserve requirements of most banks. The reduction of reserve requirements will increase the amount of yuan in circulation on the market and will inevitably lead to a drop in its value. Interestingly, the measure will enter into force on 5 July, just a day before the planned introduction of us tariffs on Chinese goods.
On this background the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange is kept around 62 rubles 85 kopecks, the Euro is trading at 73 rubles 25 kopecks. The MICEX index stands at 2250 points, the quotes of Brent crude oil approaching $ 75 per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap holding just above $ 6,100.
The Russian currency has strengthened against the dollar and Euro on the Moscow exchange. However, market participants do not expect any significant strengthening in the future. Tax week ended, the Ministry of Finance continues to buy the currency at a record pace, and the interest of foreign investors in Russian assets is melting every day more and more. We have previously talked about the fact that the ruble is the summer is not simple enough. Most likely by September we will see the update of the highs in the USD/ruble.
Gleb Zadoya,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,