The ruble fell into the trap of Russian aggression and the falling oil prices

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The ruble was more sensitive to geopolitical news than expected. By mid-day on Monday, the U.S. dollar is growing by 1% and is 66,80 RUB Euro rises in price by more than 1% and is trading at 75,92 RUB the Bank of Russia significantly increased foreign currency rates on Tuesday, November 27. They are 66,50 RUB per U.S. dollar (+84 cents) and 75.56 rubles for Euro (+63 cents).
The geopolitical drama unfolding on the occasion of the “catch” of some other ships in foreign waters, yet has more emotional consequences for the currency market. There is a chance, albeit small, that a new page of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation will arouse Western interest in toughening anti-Russian sanctions, but this is unlikely now. In addition, there are variants in which the anti-Russian rhetoric now will increase, while Moscow will be fully provocation. The ruble will react to it, but hardly dramatically.
Most likely, in a few days, if the Azov history not will continue, ruble pair will return to their trade “laterals”.
Commodity market in the morning was rapidly corrected after Friday’s swoon, has now reduced the degree of enthusiasm, but still looks interesting. A barrel of Brent traded at $of 59.95 (+1,5%), low of last week is $58,41. There is a chance that the market will be willing to buy black gold at an attractive price, but it is worth remembering that oil remains the potential for a decline of 2% -5% without special reasons.
The US dollar finished trading today in the range 66,50-67,25 rubles., the Euro finishes in the borders 75,60-76,40 RUB.
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Anna Bodrova,
Senior analyst,
Alpari