The ruble fell against the dollar since the beginning of the year more than 20%
Since the beginning of the year, the ruble fell against the dollar by more than 20%, reaching maximum values on 10 September at around 70,5 RUB High growth of quotations pair USD / RUB was observed in the periods of tightening sanctions on Russia in April (09.04 11.04 by 12%, from 58 rubles to 65 rubles), and from August to September (10.09 08.08 by 11% from 63.5 rubles to 70.5 rubles) this year. From 10 September to the end of the month, the ruble has virtually won back their losses relative to the beginning of August, and the quote is returned to the district 65,7 rubles per dollar.
Such dynamics of the pair USDRUB is due to the rising cost of a barrel of oil. Ahead of the Russian currency will face new sanctions, which must relate to lowering the level of diplomatic relations and ban on flights in the U.S. the company “Aeroflot”, and possibly almost complete cessation of exports from the us.
In our opinion, until the end of the year, the pair USDRUB will be traded in the range 67 – 70 rubles per dollar.
The Euro has grown against the ruble by more than 10% from the level of 69 rubles For the end of September EURRUB pair is trading around 76 roubles per Euro near the Fibonacci level of 76.4. The pair is moving within the rising channel, which originates from April 2017, when one Euro was estimated at 59.5 RUB From September 10 this year, the ruble strengthened against the Euro amid the rising cost of a barrel and a slowdown in economic growth in the Eurozone.
According to the Markit PMI report, in September, the European composite PMI for the manufacturing sector dropped to 54.2 points from 54.5 points in August and rallied to fresh 4-month low. The PMI index in the services sector showed a rise to 3-month high of 54.4 points in August to 54.7 points in September. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 53.3 points from 54.6 points in August, which was 2 years minimum. In September in the Euro area, a decrease in exports, which negatively affects the overall economic situation.
At the last meeting on 13 September, the ECB left the interest and Deposit rates unchanged at levels of 0% and minus 0.4% respectively. Economic growth in the Eurozone slowed, which caused trade wars, the introduction of counter-sanctions of the United States (steel and aluminium) and the EU (the number of items imported products), approaching Brexit, as well as General geopolitical tensions.
The ruble, in turn, feels the pressure of anti-Russian sanctions from the United States. However, by the Bank of Russia monetary policy, namely the increase in the key interest rate to 7.5% and the delay in the purchase of foreign currency, provides short-term support to the Russian currency. Although the main objective of the Central Bank is targeting inflation. The strengthening of the Russian currency stimulates high oil prices, which traded above$ 80 per barrel.
Recall that in the short term the ruble could be affected by geopolitical factors to a large extent. In our opinion, by the end of this year, the pair EURRUB will be traded in the range 77 to 81 rubles for Euro.
Leading expert of investment Department,