The ruble fears of a new round of sanctions

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Tuesday, April 2, for the Russian ruble was unsuccessful. The dollar and the Euro bounced back for April fools day defeat, although the Euro victory over the ruble did not look too convincing. At the close of trading the dollar exchange rate calculations “tomorrow” increased by 14 kopecks (+0,2%), to RUB 65,31, and the Euro increased by 9 kopecks (+0,12%), up to 73 and 17 RUB.
The ruble fell on fears of new sanctions and news about the decrease in funds in the national welfare Fund, which dropped in March to 60 billion rubles., to 3.83 trillion rubles. it is possible that the reduction in the amount of the Fund actually associated with a loss from asset price fluctuations, as in rubles in March, it was more profitable to keep funds than in dollars, and for the first quarter of the ruble became the most profitable currency among emerging countries.
On April 2 at the Intercontinental exchange Brent crude rose 0.5% to $69,27 per barrel. Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday that Russia cut March oil production compared to October 2018 to 130 thousand barrels per day with the application of agreements on production section or to 153 thousand barrels per day excluding the PSA.
In addition, the oil market yesterday came news from the USA, 23 countries have refused, according to estimates by the us Department of energy, to buy Iranian oil, fearing sanctions. As a result, in the morning the Brent oil continues to grow, adding 0.4 percent, and confidently goes to the level of $70 per barrel.
We believe that today’s opening the rouble may show mixed performance against the dollar and Euro unexpressed trend. Saved for today the forecasts for the pair dollar/ruble at 65-65,8 RUB and EUR/RUB at 72.7-73,5 RUB.
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Natalia Milchakova,
Deputy Director of information-analytical center,
Alpari