The ruble falls, the dollar grows despite the disappointment with the fed’s decision
For the period from 12 to 20 December, the currencies of developing countries there was a time for growth and for decline, and even to almost no change in price. Interest rate increase by the fed by 25 basis points to 2.5% impact on different currencies in different ways: some of the increase has a dramatic fall, while others did not seem to notice what was going on in the United States. Most of all the decision of the fed responded to oil falling below $55 per barrel.
The growth leader for the week was the Indian rupee that strengthened against the dollar by 2.61%, apparently on news about the rapid growth of industrial production in October by 8.1% yoy. Rose Mexican pesos (almost 1%) after the increase in the Central Bank of Mexico interest rates by 25 basis points to 8.25%. And in Turkey the interest rate is currently component of 24%, neither raise nor did not decrease, which has a positive impact on the exchange rate of the Turkish Lira. The leader of decrease became the Russian ruble, which fell against the dollar by 2.84%, while Kazakhstan tenge resist external negative and falling oil prices, down a mere 0.01%.
Kazakhstan Minister of national economy Timur Suleimenov criticized by Russian experts proposed the idea of a supranational electronic currency in the EEU, which could work on the same principles as the predecessor of the Euro “ECU” on the territory of the European Union. His argument that the introduction in EEU such currency may violate the principle of sovereignty of Kazakhstan is not entirely convincing, however, such a statement demonstrates not certain of the idea of a Eurasian version of “ECU”.
Moreover, this statement is actually supported by the Russian President Vladimir Putin during the annual press conference. He said that in the EEU there is an increasing role of the Russian ruble as a settlement and reserve currency. This debate has proved that traditional currencies have more value for normal international payments than electronic, and has an impact on the tenge exchange rate rather positively, not allowing the Kazakh currency to fall harder.
In light of recent negative developments in global markets, we changed the Outlook on the ruble against the dollar to 67.5-68.5 per RUB per U.S. dollar and ruble to Euro – RUB to 77-78 per unit of European currency. At the exchange rate of tenge to dollar forecast adjusted up slightly 369-372 tenge per U.S. dollar, at the exchange rate of tenge to Euro have changed the forecast to 420-424 tenge per Euro. Change forecasts for the exchange rate of the tenge to the ruble to 5.43-5,47 tenge per ruble.
The Deputy Director of analytical Department,