The ruble, Experts note the strange behavior of the currency
Russian ruble to the middle of the day on Friday, losing 1 penny against the dollar and 23 cents to the Euro. On closer examination it becomes clear that the decline in the dollar by 0.4% after rising 4.5% since the beginning of the year is nothing more than a retracement (profit-taking). But markets always exist in context, and in this case, the ruble can say that he is “something wrong”.
The ruble traded, often looking back at the overall dynamics of the markets, the price of oil and the behavior of the currencies of developing countries. Now, however, all of this does not help the Russian currency, it decreases with the 8th January, that is, throughout this week. At the same time, the dollar Index lost 0.8%, that is, the ruble has been adjusted to losing positions currency. Moreover, in many markets this week remained positive attitude, attracted a wave of demand for currencies of developing countries. For example, the Chinese yuan is now close to to fix a week the most dramatic growth for the year and its strengthening during the week only gaining momentum. Mexican peso and linefrequency Rand also grew all the previous days.
Still the most obvious idea is a story of caution ahead of the upcoming sanctions. In addition, the ruble is under pressure from the uncertainty surrounding inflation. She was accelerated at the end of the year in anticipation of the VAT increase: it is obvious that this effect will continue in the first months of the year, while sellers will have to adjust the “holiday” prices. Another factor of internal pressure on the ruble – the return of the securities on the markets for the resumption of foreign currency purchases, in the execution of the rules of the Ministry of Finance.
Importantly in the current situation is the following: if the ruble is weak, when there is dominated by such positive factors, he may be under increased pressure when the wind is in the markets will change, and the dynamics of oil, foreign stock markets and currencies of developing countries will unfold 180 degrees.