The ruble exchange rate in January has appreciated by more than 6%
Since the beginning of the year, the ruble showed an increase of slightly more than 6% against the dollar. At the end of the month good help for our currency as the assets of developing countries in General was the change in the rhetoric of the U.S. Central Bank in a more “soft” or cautious side. Now investors lay in the price of fed rate hikes this year, moreover, the following year, they do not eliminate the risks, reduce the cost of lending, i.e. a change of course in monetary policy of the Bank that in 2018, a four-fold increased rate.
It is certainly important shift in favor of the currencies of the developing segment, which should increase the attractiveness of ruble, including. But to take advantage of that currency can only be the case if the sanctions front, rises a new wave after the us government resolves its internal problems, in which there was a lull, which allowed investors to resume purchases of Russian assets.
On Friday, the ruble shows a mixed trend. After a morning of weakening the currency returned to growth and is now trading at levels close Thursday, near the 65,40 RUB it is Noteworthy that the “wood” does not respond to the start pending purchases of foreign currency by the Central Bank. However, this factor has already been priced in previously.
From a technical point of view, the dollar pretty well supported by the level of 65 rubles., for a breakdown of which current drivers are not enough. At least it is necessary to improve sentiment in the oil market, coupled with a deeper drop in the dollar on the Forex. Ceteris paribus, in the short term the us dollar will continue to trade near current levels, with a tendency to weakening.
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