The ruble exchange rate exceeded the psychological mark of 68 per dollar
The Russian ruble today, waiting for American statistics and Putin’s speech on pension reform, after all, broke the mark of 68 against the dollar and 79 Euro. In addition, market participants with tension waiting for the results of the first, after a two week break, hosting the Russian OFZ in the amount of 15 billion rubles. To date, nothing better than “mininuke” does not reflect the overall degree of sentiment of institucionales against the domestic currency and the stability of the national money market.
Speaking about the news, on Wednesday August 29 in the spotlight will be the second GDP in the US and, traditionally for the environment report Ministry of energy of the USA on stocks of oil and oil products. Speaking of the latter, analysts have just legends about the volatility of this indicator. According to the consensus forecast, is expected next fall by half a million barrels of crude oil, although “according to plan” after a significant drawdown on the fact of previous similar report, “the turn” and see their good growth, which should, logically, lead to a correction of oil and commodity currencies – particularly of the ruble.
As for GDP, it is a good indicator for the USA (in contrast to inflation (in fact disinflation), leading indicators or, say, personal income and expenses). Good GDP growth in the US in the second reading can again raise the dollar and, accordingly, to adjust the global currencies against the dollar. We find that in the baseline scenario, the chances of weakening of the ruble on Wednesday evening, look preferable. Significant drawdown, however, we do not expect. Most likely, the aforementioned drawdown of the morning already takes into account the likely scenario of the evening.
Meanwhile, the ruble ends the summer with the worst result since at least April, when Russia imposed new sanctions of the United States. Only in August the ruble lost to the dollar more than 7%. Yesterday trading closed at 67,84 rubles per dollar. It means that hope remained only on fundamental factors, including, primarily, high oil prices and hold the pause in the purchase of currency by the Central Bank.
But negative factors that will hinder the strengthening of the ruble, still more, and the main – excess pent-up demand for foreign currency from the Central Bank and Ministry of Finance, which can worsen in the second half of November and our “gentleman’s set” of geopolitics – the risk of further expansion of sanctions, which grows regardless of the “diligence of our behavior,” but in direct proportion to the approaching midterm elections in the United States.
The pause in foreign exchange interventions of the Central Bank/Ministry of Finance ruble will have a short support (as we all remember, last week, the Central Bank promised to buy foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance until the end of September). By this time the pent-up demand may reach 600 billion rubles. But since the beginning of October, the regulator is likely to return to the market and try to reach the normal rate of purchase of currency.
“International financial center”