The ruble: Dollar slips on expectations of easing from the fed

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After a drawdown earlier in the session, which for the most part was due to the dividend cut-off in the shares of Sberbank, the Russian market has passed in a mode of neutral trading on moderately positive external background and relatively stable oil prices. Afternoon index Mosberg cut intraday losses to 0.2% and the RTS was even back to the opening levels due to the strengthening of the ruble.
The Russian currency opened with a gap up, sending the dollar to fresh lows around 64,43 RUB On the side of the ruble continued to play the rising expectations of policy easing by the fed. The dollar on this background looks vulnerable, although the beginning of the week shows a more stable mood, partly in the hope of a good inflation data and retail sales in the United States, declared on Wednesday and Friday respectively. By the way, a pleasant surprise from the statistics will force the players who lay in the price reduction rate of the American Central Bank to cool down, that can put pressure on “Russians” and the currencies of developing countries as a whole.
While the trend of strengthening of the ruble remains, but at the approach of quotations to a mark of 64 RUB may be willing to take profits because of the vulnerability of oil prices, the local overvaluation of our currency and the threat of a return of anti-risk sentiment in global financial markets.
Gennady Nikolaev
Academy of management Finance and investment