The ruble: dollar exchange Rate hinders the strengthening
The pair USDRUB on Thursday during the trades fell below 64.50, but by the end of the day returned to 64.65, due to the strengthening of the dollar on world currency market. EURRUB declined on Thursday on 24 kopecks, to 72.21, and inside the down under 72. Market participants remain wary in respect of the shares and commodity currencies.
We should also highlight a further weakening of the yuan to 6.94 per dollar. The Chinese currency was cheaper only for a short time in the end of last year at the peak of fears about trade wars. Australian and new Zealand dollars the trend in the decline of the second and third month, respectively. These currencies are often a good indicator of investor sentiment towards the Chinese economy. Reduction makes us cautious to predict the dynamics of the ruble.
It is also worth noting that oil and geopolitics is still on the side of the Russian currency. Quotes of Brent crude yesterday rose above 72, updating the three-week highs. It is better to remain cautious regarding forecasts for Brent, because geopolitics can change dramatically over the weekend. More important and long term factor is seen as a slowdown of the world economy due to trade conflicts and the common desire of investors to reduce positions in the stock, that can negatively affect oil prices. Often, the price of these assets move in tandem.
Negative and positive factors for the ruble, in General, equalize each other, so on Friday during trading, the Russian currency is expected to be in the Wake of the overall dynamics of the foreign exchange market, presumably weakened the dollar and adding to the Euro.