The ruble does not look so bad
On daily and weekly charts the ruble declines in company with other risky assets at auction on Thursday. The reason for the new wave of risk aversion was triggered by the doubts about the reliability of the concluded truce between the US and China after the arrest of Finance Director Huawei of China at the request of Washington.
Against this background, the dollar is in demand in pairs with high-yield currencies, but the situation on the oil market only adds fuel to the fire. The OPEC meeting is in full swing, and the prices are explainable demonstrate increased volatility, reflecting the nervousness of traders due to conflicting signals from the exporters.
If you ignore the volatile oil factor, in the longer term for the ruble remain the sanctions risks, and on the horizon looms the prospect of renewed intervention by the Bank of Russia, which, apparently, will happen in the next month. A prelude to the resumption of foreign currency purchases on the market can serve as a rate hike at the December meeting.
All of this will not play into the hands of “Russian”. However, let’s not forget that the amount of intervention will be determined by oil prices. If the stock does not fly in January, the purchase of currency will be quite small and not much will hurt the Russian currency. In General, in the next months a lot will depend largely on the dynamics of prices for “black gold” and foreign situation.
From a technical perspective, the pair dollar/ruble, which today for the first time since early December, has violated the integrity of 67 RUB, are unlikely to gain a foothold over an area of 67,50 RUB in the near future, and in a broader perspective may fall, according to the signs of slowing growth in the US economy, which promise a breakthrough of the bullish trend on the dollar on the Forex.
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