The ruble does not believe in the possibility of implementing sanctions against BFL
Today the focus of the currency markets will be the main publication in which the fed evaluates the labor market – the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector. The expectation here is again positive, and meanwhile, the dollar has strengthened to 95,06 on the DXY index – a maximum of 19 July and part of mark strong, hardly insurmountable, resistance. The rouble on this background have already dropped to the level of 63,44 per dollar.
Question for further strengthening the “green” in the case of a positive report on labor market in the US is already in the effectiveness of import tariffs Donald trump, since they make sense only against the background of neutral (or better – moderate adjustment downward) of the dollar.
A strengthening dollar, “eats” more and more of their economic effect, making us end products uncompetitive. Therefore, the question of market reaction to Non-farm payrolls in the extent to which American investors lately guided by “do no harm!” – remains open. As a variant – another tweet trump demanding to stop the investigation of spectracolor Mueller, or something to the same financial and economic issues and the markets will pretend that this event was more important, but because those who once again succumbed to the “moment of weakness” and joined in the joyful stream of the “bulls” on the dollar – go a signal not to get excited and to remember that the market does not benefit society.
Meanwhile, the domestic market is shaken by comments on the new wave of us sanctions, restrictions against the Russian national debt. Then it would be good not to act rashly, multiplying panic, and figure out what’s what.
The peculiarity of the accompanying rhetoric of the new “sanctions tranche” – that it is not punitive, but preventive in nature: “to continue to teach it”. A group of U.S. senators led by Lindsey Graham – authors of the bill refer to “the need to counter “misinformation from Russia”, and for this purpose created a new government Department.
The developers at this point that if Russia “will cease attacks, as well as change policy in Syria and Ukraine, the United States will remove sanctions” – but in the absence of any details of this disclaimer to the attention of the markets he has not received. Against this background, an interesting talk about the possibility of a personal meeting of members of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation with a Republican Senator-libertarian from Kentucky, Rand Paul, who is reputed to be one of the most well-intentioned towards the people in Washington.
Now I come to the subject of the impending sanctions. If we are talking about Federal loan bonds denominated in rubles, then to buy them it is impossible to impose sanctions, as OFZs are rouble mechanism, which is located in the ruble zone. The Finance Ministry may issue new ruble-denominated debt for as long as necessary – though, judging by recent auctions, even in the case of leaving some of the most politically correct non-residents with domestic Russian market multiples of oversubscription, due to its great parameters, the risk/return will continue.
However, in this mysterious story, all emphasis rests on the fact that the sanctions affect only the future, but not traded OFZ issues. But here is the problem – how simply do not allow non-residents to new tools if they are not traded in the dollar zone and will be stored in Russian depositories? Here, apparently, or the principle of “broken telephone,” and we don’t know something, or the bill that will undergo a significant transformation – especially since Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin have repeatedly expressed my opinion about the low efficiency of targeting the market of internal ruble debt to Russia.
“International financial center”