The ruble can unbalance on Friday, the Central Bank of Russia

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In the Russian currency market – the usual beginning of the year calm. Geopolitical winds blow consistently high pressure, and most importantly today – the President of the USA of Donald trump at the annual message to Congress (analogue of the more usual “address to the Federal Assembly”). It is expected that the performance of Donald trump will be sustained in his signature assertive accusatory tones, occasionally set off by scenes of self-glorification.
The President of the United States continues to frighten Congress and the media that he can declare a state of emergency in the country to provide funding for the notorious border wall. In addition, trump might cover the topics of the upcoming presidential elections 2020, trade negotiations with China and political with North Korea, as well as casual will affect the political situation in Venezuela, without revealing the details of the further plans in this regard.
On this background before the opening of the American trading, the ruble strengthened to barely noticeable marks 65,46 rubles per dollar (as of 15:45 GMT), while continuing to hold a strong position in the middle of my developed over the last couple of weeks trade corridor outlined by the values 65 and 66 rubles per dollar. Gold decided to take a time-out until tomorrow publications on U.S. GDP and trade balance, trading at $1318 per ounce, approximately at the level of yesterday’s closing in the United States.
If the numbers come out worse than expected, we can expect renewed growth of precious metals, although, of course, in connection with the beginning of the celebration in China of the New year according to the Lunar calendar purchase physical metals dipped significantly. The game thus came the universal bullish sentiment for the “safe Harbor” against the background of recent scandalous news with various limitations and risk of sanctions to countries which allow themselves to trade with those who are in the black list of Washington.
Against the background of stagnant oil prices and reduce concerns about the introduction of new sanctions amid continuing inter-party strife in the United States, in Europe, the importance of local corporate events. So, for example, today in the spotlight proved to be an excellent annual financial reporting in Rosneft. By the end of 2018 ruble revenues according to IFRS exceeded revenue 2017 37%, and net profit amounted to more than 649 billion rubles, which is higher than its record set in 2013, when oil cost more than $100 per barrel, which amounted to 555 billion.
Next news expected the announcement of the Ministry of Finance on options for placing the BFL this week. Yet we see that amid declining interest in debt instruments of developed markets due to the refusal of the fed from the original plans to raise interest rates in 2019, the interest to Russian ruble bonds is growing steadily, and this increases the demand for rubles and, ultimately, support the domestic currency.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
“International Financial Center”