The ruble By the end of year grew by 7.25% against the dollar
Although the ruble in the morning hiding on the mark-to-64,70 72,10 dollar and the Euro in anticipation of the main event of the day – the outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for definition of monetary policy, we have a suspicion that the expectations will be more colorful than the event itself.
At the end of the year the ruble remains in the black by 7.25% against the dollar, although such soft currencies like the Korean won, Brazilian real and Indian rupee, which by the end of March was added to the dollar since the beginning of the current year in the framework of the common monetary thaw, show either negative, or close to it.
Blame – unscheduled next round of strengthening of the dollar index DXY which marker 97 which we compared with the zero on the Celsius scale thermometer, is trading at 97,83 with all the ensuing consequences. So much to dig deep in search of the causes is not necessary.
Today will be very busy in terms of macroeconomic publications. As we have commented previously, we get the preliminary US GDP for the 1st quarter, and consumer spending and consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. All this is very important, given the tension around the outcome of global trade wars and talk of impending recession (today published information about the drop in profits of the Corporation from Daimler’s sales of Mercedes in the 1st quarter by 16%, and this is no joke!), and also the final stage of publication of quarterly reports of the public companies in the United States.
Other things being equal, and given the rather aggressive stock-buying dollars from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it would be tactically correct if at the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank, our financial regulator has refrained from taking action. It now makes sense to pause in order to assess the probability of change of a vector of monetary policy of the fed. In the meantime, we see that the regulator is focused on the bar 64 rubles per dollar, below which he carries on quite an aggressive buying of the currency. Actually, it is pointless to argue that the rouble has countless reasons to become cheaper, and only two – the price of oil and the inflow of capital due to the extremely attractive investment rating of Russian assets – to increase.
As we warned previously, making medium-term forecasts on currency pairs, the factor of participation of the Central Bank market purchases of foreign currency in any case can not be excluded out of the equation foreign exchange value of the ruble. Recall that from 5 April to 13 may, the Central Bank plans to buy dollars and Euro in total, 255,4 billion. The daily volume of purchases in this period should amount to 11.6 billion rubles.
However, the inflow of funds of non-residents in OFZ at the end of March amounted to slightly more than 120 billion roubles and became maximum for the last year and a half. Thus, the share of non-residents in this market reached 26%, while the Ministry of Finance officials talking about the fact that 25% their share of the OFZ is optimal and it is not necessary to increase.
the expert “International financial centre”