The ruble between strong oil prices and fears of trade wars

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Fears of a full-scale trade wars continue to put pressure on the markets. The Asian platforms and futures for the S&P500 losing since the beginning of the day 0.6%-1.0%, despite reports that China and the U.S. hold talks to resolve differences. As often happens in negotiations, trump initially threatened by a sharp deterioration in the conditions for trading partners, and then make concessions, demanding that the appropriate steps from the opposite side.
In the ideal case for the United States, they will receive more favorable terms under practically unchanged conditions for trading partners. However, even a good negotiator a tramp can receive not that result on which counted. It comes from the axiom that the U.S. market is vital for exporting countries, but in reality, they can switch to other markets.
In the shadows remain strong macroeconomic data, indicating the preservation of the impressive growth rates of the world economy. For stock markets the news are in the background, and the raw pad feel good. Oil is back highs a few years and is trading near $ 70 per barrel Brent. The $70 previously acted as effective resistance. In 2015, the year of her achievement marked the end of a correction and the beginning of a new impetus to the collapse of oil. In 2018, a re-test of this level is also not without rollback. In the case of taking this mark a wave of stop orders can cause a strong rise of prices.
However, the markets ‘ concerns is able to undermine business and consumer confidence and markedly affect the data, but this will take a few months.
Weak markets and strong oil form a contradictory backdrop for the ruble at the start of trading weeks. Bidders still more attention will turn to the growing oil, allowing the Russian currency to win back losses Thursday-Friday of the previous week. In favourable to ruble the case of the USD / RUB pair at 57.30, where up on Friday, may again return to the region 57, or attempt to break below. EURRUB rose on Friday to 70.73, but today during the day we can not exclude the attempts to reduce under 70.50.
Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Financial analyst,