The ruble begins the second half of the fall
It seems that the ruble exchange rate turned to decrease. In mid-day trading on Tuesday the pair USDRUB is growing by 31 kopecks, reaching up to 63.28 in the beginning of the session. EURRUB rising 38 cents to 71.43, after Monday came close to 71.
Note that the Russian currency started to retreat against the dollar throughout last week, rebounding from near 62.50 levels. In part, this occurred following the trend of USD to growth in the global market. Partly due to changes in the mood of bidders: now they have more caution against the ruble, which ignored the rise in oil prices, but began to play their decline yesterday.
The role played by the beginning of the second half, that might cause investors to revise their trading strategies against the ruble. It is likely that in the near future we will see a wave of profit-taking in the portfolios after an impressive growth rate since the beginning of the year. Apparently, due to this shakeup at the moment, other things being equal, the ruble tends to decrease.
In that case, if it really is a global change of strategy, this could be the beginning of a prolonged fall in the coming months. USDRUB under these conditions will not experience significant resistance, heading in the coming weeks in the direction 66. At the same time, EURRUB can go higher than 74 quite quickly and to target levels of about 76 to the end of the year.
However, the ruble is still a chance to get rid of slight shock and to return to growth after a brief correction. In such a scenario, the interest in the sale of the ruble for no reason can pogasnut already around 64 to the dollar and 72 to the Euro. The levels which were in previous months, the lower boundary of the trading ranges, and now can become a kind of resistance, which will increase purchase of the Russian currency.
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