The ruble begins a week is not easy
The us dollar maintains trend growth in most currencies, including the Russian. On Friday the USD / RUB was one step away from level 67, and on Monday mid-day bounce to 66.65.
While the ruble managed to keep a defense against the Euro, despite the decline in oil. The single currency is losing ground on the world market as investors reduced purchases in light of the extremely low interest rates the debt markets in the Euro-area.
By mid-session trading on EURRUB 73.13, declining for the third consecutive day and moving away from the upper boundary of the trading range at 74. Given the trend supports hopes for a more sustained reversal of the pair. From April to July, the inability to go above 72 led to the rollback EURRUB. Recent history suggests a more cautious descents of the course: the ruble unfolded to decrease already with elevations near 73.
This week could be significant for the Russian currency, because it will influence the dynamics of oil, the news on employment in the United States and the monetary policy decision of Bank of Russia on 6 September.
On Friday, the black gold lost of more than 3.5% due to the proximity of the introduction of China’s high tariffs on imports of American oil. From the technical analysis, Brent has consolidated in August after the collapse in the first days of last month. As a result of lower it was at the lower border of the narrowing trading range. Exit down under the mark of 58.60 per barrel, may become an additional factor of pressure, marking the end of the corrective phase and the start of a new round of decline.
Another story – US data. The situation is that and very strong and very weak indicators can strengthen demand for the dollar on world markets. In the first case, investors may overestimate the chances of lower rates, the fed in the coming months. In the second case, can dramatically increase traction in defensive assets, causing a rapid sale.
CBR is now in a difficult situation. He will have to make a decision before the fed even before the release of employment data in the United States. Expectations leaning towards a new rate cut to 7%, the main uncertainty concerns the future statements of intent. If the rate is lowered, it can become an occasion to increase pressure on the Russian currency. If we could once again hear the phrases about the end of the cycle of rate cuts, this could become a reason for returning buyers in rubles.
The material is provided.