The ruble and dead-end policy

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According to Rosstat, real disposable income fell for the second month in a row. In August, the wallets of Russians lost 0.9%, and in September the drop was 1.5%. Nominal wages are growing, but all growth is eaten up by inflation, which according to the main statistical body of the country has accelerated to 3.5%.
The main cause of this situation, we consider a dead-end policy of the financial authorities of the country in the last few years. It is worth to mention the Central Bank, which its high key rate just “tied the knot” the economy and the Ministry of Finance who inflated the dollar to unimaginable values of their intervention, and Mineko, forecasts which, as usual, far from reality.
Meanwhile, overseas, the fed gave impetus to the growth rate of the American currency. Was published yesterday the minutes of the last meeting of the fed, the document says that members of the Federal open market Committee are in favor of further increase in the key rate. In principle, it is quite expected. The surprise for markets this is no, but, however, buyers of the American currency was encouraged by the publication of the Protocol, and the us dollar is now rapidly growing on the international currency market Forex.
On this background the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow stock exchange is kept around 65 rubles 75 kopecks, the Euro traded at the level of 75 rubles 55 kopecks. The MICEX index dropped to 2410 points, and oil quotations of mark Brent fell below 80 USD per barrel. Bitcoins according to the website CoinMarketCap is kept slightly below 6600 dollars per unit.
The price of black gold fell below $ 80 per barrel. Testing the key level has been happening for over a week now, yet to gain a foothold below this value, quotations Brent have not yet succeeded. However, the breakdown in 79 – $ 80 per barrel could lead to a further decline in oil prices. It’s a pretty painful blow on the Russian financial market and in these circumstances we retain our recommendation. Recall that we have previously made recommendations to buy the dollar in the area from 65 to 66 wheels for the dollar, but it does not exclude that at the end of the month due to the tax payments may be an attempt to break below the level of 65 rubles and it will be a great buying opportunity for the medium term. Goal 67 – 68 rubles.
Gleb Zadoya,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,