The ruble: a mark of 66 per dollar will not be the last
The ruble continues to lose ground, in spite of moderate optimism in the global financial markets. The USD / RUB pair rose in the morning to 27 cents, reaching up to 66.34 and adding a third consecutive trading session. EURRUB is growing at 40 cents, reaching 73.69.
Market insight: if we observe the change of the trading volume, you can see that investors are now very interested in sales of the ruble. In addition, traders should pay attention to the General decrease in quotations of commodity currencies: the Turkish Lira fell this morning at 0.42%, the Australian dollar lost 0.25%, the South African Rand fell by 0.21%, the new Zealand dollar falls by 0.20%, while the Chinese yuan continues to storm long-term lows.
It should be noted that last August was a heavy month for the currencies of developing countries. Now the situation looks much more restrained, but overall the market still leans towards defensive assets. In addition to such factors of a psychological nature, as the fear falls in August-September, influenced by the approach of the new financial year. In September, many funds are engaged in a deep shake-up of portfolios, temporarily preferring the most liquid securities that generates demand for the dollar, the yen and the Euro.
It is also worth noting that the Ministry of Finance of Russia has reduced the volume of placement of government bonds by completing a significant portion of the plan year. Also this caused the inflow of funds in the ruble, fueling its growth rate even in times of falling oil. On Monday, Brent added 0.9%, and Tuesday morning formally is in the black at 0.3%. Overall, however, her schedule remains within the downtrend, where each subsequent pullback below the previous one.
An important indicator of market sentiment can be the dynamics of the market near the levels of previous local highs of ruble pairs: above 67 to the dollar and 74 to the Euro. If the level of currency will pass without much stops, more and more participants can connect to the sales before the end of the year. Also note that now begins the period of increased debt payments that will generate reverse thrust from rubles into dollars.
If the ruble will fight for their position, it will increase significantly the chances for a new pullback of Russian currency. However, in the face of slowing global growth, the second scenario seems less likely.
The material is provided,