The ruble 65,50 balance the Russian budget oil at $58

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After Beijing announced the suspension of purchases of agricultural products from the United States, in response, trump has postponed the issuance of licenses for the resumption of U.S. companies with the equipment of Huawei. Moreover, at the end of the week, the US President hinted that the talks should resume in September can not take place. All this, and the looming prospect of hard Brekzita in Britain and the resignation of the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, promises months of high volatility, to escape from which is not so easy without thinking about gold. Last performed something like a “technical correction of decency” in the short term dropped below $1500/oz to $1499/oz, which loudly and whistling went off at $1514/oz.
Thus, the degree of tension on the trade front remains elevated, and the additional nervousness on site bring fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate today again weakened to 7.07 against the dollar, marking a new reason for discontent of the administration of Donald trump. Coupled with this, today in English-language media from the first band goes photo Prince of Saudi Arabia Salman that, apparently, should serve as a hint of some serious allegations in the context of low oil prices (Brent as of 12:00 GMT is still trading near $58 per barrel). So far, apart from vague reminders about the long-running IPO in the history of mankind – IPO Saudi Aramco in this vein, nothing did. In this environment, the full restoration of the risky asset is uncertain.
Today, the domestic assets unable to support the Agency’s decision to Fitch, which, as you know, despite all these talks about the new sanctions (the ones that “in the case Skrypalia”) has upgraded the credit rating of Russia from BBB – to BBB with a stable Outlook. In its decision, the Agency referred to the increase of stability of the Russian economy to external shocks, reducing its dependence on oil prices (oddly enough), the overall improvement of the macroeconomic situation in the country and a prudent fiscal strategy.
In this case, Fitch noted that even if us sanctions will expand and cover the entire debt, the country will face new restrictions at the expense of the established fiscal restraint, greatly reducing the need for debt financing against whom have recently been trying to impose all sorts of sanctions and massive foreign exchange reserves, in which a rising gold takes the largest share among the share of gold in all the world gold reserves, and current account surplus.
The decline of the Euro against the dollar this morning has accelerated with the opening of the “European” in the blink of an eye lost 0.4 percent, however, closer to noon for GMT, he visually takes some not very convincing attempts to fix their fiasco at the level of 1,117.
It remains unclear whether the will of the citizens embraced the political crisis of Italy in the elections. The notorious movement “5 stars” – partners in the coalition party and opposition legislators, Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Salvini can unite to block the dissolution of Parliament. However, they may have to find a common language to form an alternative new government is not an easy task to split the political scene in Italy. Meanwhile, ahead of the elections, Salvini can once again promise to break EU budget rules as its rivals, and this is detrimental to the exchange rate stability of the Euro.
Today, the ruble continues to slowly drift down to the same reason for the weakness of oil – now for us it is the most important factor. Since the beginning of the week was weak in terms of important reports and macroeconomic data, and Fitch’s decision to balance “bad taste” from the discussion of sanctions, it is in oil now and will unfold the most important event for us. Overall, with oil at $58 a ruble 65,50 must fully balance the Russian budget – although, of course, from the point of view of the long-suffering Russian consumers (read editorials in the domestic media!) for them it is not very desirable scenario.
Vladimir Rojankovski,
The expert “International financial centre”