The rouble can fall in price after the cancellation of the meeting, trump and Putin

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The ruble rose sharply during trading on Thursday on news that the EU will not rush to impose new sanctions against Russia. The USD / RUB pair fell during the Thursday 74 cents, down to 66.21. EURRUB has lost 76 cents, falling to 75.40. In addition to these news, the national currency was also helped by a change in the rhetoric of Russia in regard to oil.
Brent played a three percent decline within the day, rebounding from 13-month lows. At the time of writing, it is trading at $60.14, while WTI is at $51.6.
Moreover, as the Euro and the dollar, the revs were above average last month, which indicates the interest to purchase of the ruble in the moment.
But in our view, continues around the Russian currency more risk than support. Trump still has canceled a meeting with Putin. Timid hopes for improved relations between the two countries re-melting. In addition, Europe is simply following his own legislation, and there were no surprises: just do not justify the most serious fears.
Coming weekend and next week for oil can be fatal. On the sidelines of the G20 meeting of leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia. The agreement in principle between the two countries in 2016 have contributed to the reversal of the graph of “black gold” in the direction of growth. There just may not do without unpleasant surprises. Both sides, in fact, increased its production, reaching record levels in November. Against this background, I will be achieving agreement on “slight decline in production” from the historical records. The question is, will this solve the problem of excess oil on the market.
I’d venture that the Russian currency will be difficult to defend before the position, in light of the return of sanctions risk and vulnerability of oil.
Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Senior analyst,