The rouble can continue strengthening, forgetting about the oil

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On Friday, the Russian ruble lost some of the gains Thursday. The USD / RUB pair rose 22 cents to 61.93 and EURRUB added 44 cents to 73.97. Roll back the ruble is largely a correction after an overly rapid growth of the previous day, as global markets maintained a positive attitude. This attitude remains in force on Monday, causing the growth of the Asian areas and the weakening of the dollar on global currency market.
The American currency has lost growth momentum, the third trading session giving ground to most of its major rivals. The dollar index receded from its peak in December and fell by 1%. The change in sentiment was weak data on US inflation, which reduced fears of a more active monetary policy from the fed.
This rollback has a high chance to continue as part of the players will probably want to take profits from the recent rise of the dollar. From the technical analysis, the last month in Forex, the dollar rose sharply too, and now he faces a correction of about 2%.
In a broader perspective, the recent pullback looks a good opportunity for sales growth within the long-term trend in the decline of the American currency, formed over a year ago. Very unusual, but oil follows the dollar, losing the position on Friday and Monday morning. Among the causes of decline increasing drilling activity in the U.S. that promises to further production growth in the coming months.
Growth markets and falling oil have the opposite effect on the Russian currency. Recently, however, much more noticeable the effect of demand risks. Thus, the ruble is quite capable to continue the recovery of the dollar and the Euro after growth of markets, strengthening its position below 74 euros and 62 per dollar. At the same time, the oil factor cannot be entirely missed from the radar. If the correction will be sustainable, at some point, this factor will be back in sight of the players of the Russian currency.
Alexander Kuptsikevich,
Financial analyst,