The rise in oil prices, the ruble was not impressed

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Wednesday, August 28, the auction on ruble pairs were mixed. The dollar/ruble rose by 0.54% to 66,80 RUB, EUR/RUB – on 0,32, to of 73.92 RUB GBP/RUB fell by 0.26% to RUB 81,53
Trading ruble on Masuria opened lower amid the unstable situation on global capital markets because of the continuing confrontation between the United States and China. The interest in risky assets is missing. Market participants ignored the increase in oil prices for the second consecutive day.
The ruble strengthened against the British pound, which fell for the decision of the Prime Minister Boris Johnson to suspend the work of Parliament. Britain’s Queen approved his request. According to published official decree, the Parliament will have to suspend their activities not earlier than Monday, September 9, and return to work no later than Monday 14 October.
The dollar/ruble rose to 66,98, the Euro/ruble – to 74.27 RUB the Ruble after updating lows partly regained losses against foreign currencies on the growth of prices for Brent to $60,96 per barrel. Data US Department of energy showed a significant decline in oil reserves.
According to the latest data, the oil reserves in the United States last week fell by 10.03 million barrels (consensus: -4,7 million barrels). Gasoline inventories fell by 2.09 million barrels, distillates – by 2.06 million barrels. Experts on average had expected a decline in gasoline stocks of 530 thousand barrels and reserves of distillates by 700 thousand barrels. Data almost coincided with the forecast API, so the growth was restrained.
Thursday, August 29, trading in Asia are relatively quiet. A barrel of Brent fell by 0.5%. Decrease in quotations should be considered as a correction to yesterday’s growth. Technically, buyers do not interfere to restore the price to $61,60. Deterrent for all markets is a trade war with China.
Tax period covered. The rouble has support only auctions of the Ministry of Finance. On Wednesday at the auctions the Ministry has placed OFZ in amount of RUB 20 billion Demand for the bonds exceeded the offer 7.5 times and amounted to 151,74 billion.
The decline in oil prices should not affect ruble pairs, as market participants ignore the growth for two days. The ruble will remain under pressure until the situation becomes clearer with China and the United States. This morning (at 10:35 Moscow time) at the auction of the Moscow stock exchange courses dollar and the Euro is treading water, respectively, at up to 66.77 ruble and ruble of 73.98.
The pair dollar/ruble will keep driving about 66,50 RUB, EUR/RUB – about RUB 73,75
Vladislav Antonov,
“Information-analytical center “Alpari”