The rate of oil is increasing, but the financial markets won’t notice

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The world’s major stock indexes moved in different directions on Tuesday, Europe was mainly growing, and America decreased. On the background of how to ignite a world trade war affected the Russian stock market. Ruble Mosberg index lost 0.76%, the dollar-denominated RTS index fell less 0.36%. Among leaders of decrease – “roundabout” (-4,12%) and “HVAC” (-3,33%). The Dow 30 fell while on 0,54%.
In the morning of Wednesday the Asian indices fell in unison 0.2-1.3 percent. But futures on the S&P 500 index was trading close morning 2,720 points that on 0,25% above levels of closing of the previous trading day. The growth of world trade, the risks may outweigh the moderate increase in oil prices and Russian stocks on the open, it is highly likely to continue to decline. Likely day the corridor index Mosberg is in the range of values 2280-2325 points, RTS index — 1135-1160 points. Publications statements of Russian issuers are expected today.
Unlike the stock market the ruble on Tuesday has grown. At the end of the day on Masuria dollar with calculations “tomorrow” fell to 63,1450 RUB (-28,5 COP.), the European currency fell to 73,6050 RUB (is 18.5 COP.). The ruble was supported by rising oil prices and the correction of the dollar against most currencies of emerging markets. On the same grounds today, the growth of the ruble may continue, although market activity will be low due to weekend in the US – the independence Day celebration. The expected daily range for the dollar — 62,5-63,8 RUB, for the European currency — 72,9-74,3 RUB.
On Tuesday, 3 July, Brent crude oil showed significant fluctuations within the day, but closed in positive territory. Bidding started at $77,3 per barrel by the beginning of the American trading session climbed to $78,5, then for six hours fell by almost $2, to $76,6, but by the end of the day, recovered to $77.6 per. Oil prices supported a message about the difficulties with the supply of “black gold” from Libya. The national oil company declared force majeure on delivery of the raw materials of the two ports of the country.
She also warned that the blockade of the country’s infrastructure could bring down the oil production of 850 thousand barrels per day. Supported oil quotations and the American petroleum Institute, which reported a decrease in oil reserves for the week by 4.5 million barrels, after a fall of 9.2 million barrels a week earlier. On the morning of Wednesday quotes of the black gold continued its steady rise, reaching $78,0. Likely daily range for today’s trading, Brent crude is $77,2-$78,7 per barrel.
The medium range which is defined by the closest significant support levels and resistance remains between $72,7-$79,5. Today in connection with celebration of independence Day in the United States data from the energy information Administration on oil reserves and petroleum products will not be published.
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Vadim Iosub,
Senior analyst,
Alpari