The price of oil crossed the red line and is targeting $ 45
The rapid fall in oil prices on the global oil market originally caused by unwarranted speculative growth of oil prices in anticipation of sanctions against Iran and fear of an oil shortage on the world market.
But in fact, as such sanctions did not happen, and eight major countries-importers of Iranian oil (Greece, India, Italy, China, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea and Japan) are unable to abandon her purchases and the USA allowed these countries to continue to cooperate with Iran. Two countries from this list are part of the Eurozone, that could almost mean that the entire Iranian oil exports to Europe remained.
Russia, which joined the sanctions, it will be the ninth country that buys oil from Iran. Thus, Tehran has kept 85% of its oil exports to the world market.
The US playing card of the murder of independent journalist in Saudi Arabia Khashoggi the Saudi authorities were able to put pressure on the Kingdom under the threat of sanctions, Saudi Arabia has increased oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day. United States thus, was able to beat and break the desire of OPEC countries to maintain the upward trend in world oil prices, thus eliminating any shortages of oil on the world market, and Vice versa, creating a surplus, which led to a rapid decline in oil prices on the world market.
Now oil prices matched the mark, when the cost of shale oil in the United States will become unprofitable and American oil companies will become unprofitable to extract shale oil. We can see massive bankruptcy of small oil companies producing shale oil. In this regard, in the domestic U.S. market may be a shortage of commercial oil, as the statistics on commercial inventory, which for the second consecutive week in negative zone, but above the consensus forecast, which has not had a strong effect on the downward trend. America will be easier to buy cheap oil on the world market to cover the internal deficit. Therefore, the fact the cost of production of shale oil will not play a significant role in the increase of oil prices on the world market.
The impact of the rapid fall in oil prices on the overall market it is difficult to assess, as global stock markets dominated by bearish trend and this is unlikely caused by a fall in oil prices, and in the economic aspect, it leads to a reduction of prices for gasoline and diesel fuel, which has a positive effect on macroeconomic indicators of the economies of different countries.
Most likely, a return to the current annual maxima is unlikely to be possible, oil prices will move in a certain corridor of low prices from 45-55 dollars per barrel of BRENT crude oil that will be beneficial both for oil exporters and for its consumers.
A leading economist,