The price of oil: Bank of America made a very optimistic forecast

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Bank of America gave an extremely optimistic forecast for oil prices. The Ministry of Finance will mark up the budget plus in 2018. Bank of America made a very optimistic forecast for the oil market, stating that in 2019 the quotes of black gold will rise to $ 100 per barrel. The main reason for such rapid growth in oil prices, analysts at investment Bank called formed in the oil market deficit, which will continue in the coming year. This is due to the transaction of OPEC to reduce oil production. Among the local factors supporting oil prices, the Bank called the possible introduction of sanctions against Iran, as well as serious problems in the oil industry of Venezuela.
On this background the dollar on the Moscow exchange is held in the area 61 rubles 70 kopecks, the Euro is trading around 73 rubles 55 kopecks. The MICEX index rose to 2330 points, the quotes of Brent crude oil continues to trade just below $ 78 per barrel. Bitcoins according to CoinMarketCap dropped to 8800 dollars.
The Ministry of Finance for the first time in the last few years will mark up the budget surplus. The Agency estimates the potential surplus of approximately 0.5%. The main factor will be a sharp increase in additional oil and gas revenues, which is higher than the initial forecasts of 2.2 trillion rubles. In total from the oil and gas sector, the budget will receive 2.75 trillion rubles.
It is more than 16% of all Federal budget revenues. However, despite the claims, including Bank of America that oil prices will continue to rise, we believe that the risks of correction in the oil market is now quite high and the optimism of traders can be too high. If oil prices go down, then this will inevitably entail and the Russian currency. By the end of may, we expect growth of the dollar to 62 – 63 rubles.
Gleb Zadoya,
The head of the analytical Department of the company,