The price of gold rising pressure of global risks
Risks in the world over the past day rose again, and is fully reflected in the price of gold, which, as we foretold, has resumed growth. As of 12:00 MSK Troy ounce “eternal values” again it has traded above $1300 – $1307 – and, for the first time in the last month, the spot price equal to the price of the front futures, which is unequivocal evidence in favor of trend continuation.
In the U.S., inflames another political campaign of unprecedented power began preparatory stages to the presidential race of 2020. Louder-sounding voices of the radicals “trump – resign!” yesterday was suddenly stopped him, perhaps the most fierce opponent of speaker of the house of representatives Nancy Pelosi: “he’s not worth it to us to work on his impeachment. We didn’t do it against George Bush when he sent troops to Iraq – we don’t do it now,” she told American television journalists in the closing door of the Elevator superior.
Another issue is the likelihood that the drop in shares of American concern Boeing aircraft will be able to derail the indexes of the broad market. The question is polemical. Against a collapse of quotations Boeing because of the tragedy in Ethiopia, dozens of countries and airlines around the world, including in the European Union, almost overnight has suspended flights of Boeing 737 MAX 8s. Continue to operate Boeing 737 MAX 8s only USA, Canada and India. It is obvious that the company as no one else is interested in the speedy investigation of the last two episodes of crashes involving Boeing 737 MAX 8s, and until it is completed, the “heavyweight” of the two major U.S. stock indexes will have a lot of pressure on them.
Finally, the third strongest risk factor – political situation in the UK. On the eve of the deadline for the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union – “red day calendar” March 29 – the country was on the verge of the most severe political crisis since the first referendum on Brexit. Yesterday, the Parliament of Albion rejected a modified plan of leaving the EU Theresa may and thus have included a countdown timer at the nightmarish alternative – Brexit “without conditions” – that is sure to plunge the country into financial crisis.
New delay for three months, which if lucky may circumstances must be approved by the EU will in any case be perceived as a loss of Britain, and the radical supporters of Brexit may even cease to vote and even to leave the government.
Meanwhile, speaking about the Russian calendar, today, are the next two issues of OFZ minfinovskih total indicative amount of 260 billion rubles. Although the first two “pancake” in the new scheme of the Ministry of Finance with a “floating” amount of initial proposals was, frankly, not very successful, a week ago, when the Minister Anton Siluanov has reduced the amplitude of this “swimming”, both editions have gone with a significant oversubscription. Thus, today’s story is unlikely to pass unnoticed, because it seems that the Finance Ministry is seeking empirically in terms of volumes of its “Golden section”.
However, I do not advise you to indulge in euphoria. BFL is definitely an attractive investment instrument that greatly affects the stability of the ruble, but a record amount of 46 billion rubles of investment by non-residents in the Russian ruble debt in one month is a very decent result, but re-accelerating capital outflow from Russia makes this statistic irrelevant. Recently, the Central Bank reported that net capital outflow from Russia since the beginning of the year increased more than 2 times and amounted to 18.6 billion – but not rubles, but dollars. This is significantly higher than the same period last year of $8.7 billion.
Speaking of the ruble, today it looks that the domestic currency still decided to go back to their favorite trade corridor 65-66 rubles per dollar and not push the boundaries of this range as it seemed on Monday. As of 12:30 GMT amid the continuation of the rally in oil, the ruble strengthened to 65,56 in tandem with the dollar. In tandem with the Euro, the ruble strengthened more noticeable – up to 74,02 rubles for a single unit.
“International Financial Center”