The markets do not understand the essence of the message trump
The appeal of Donald trump to the Federal Assembly” was another no-event for markets, although conversations and versions of this account before it was done. The density of useful information per unit time at this event was extremely low: the podium, trump statements about the need to forget about inter-party differences and unite in the name of great goals, his compilation of “success stories of the American people’s President” and other standard-expected things are constantly interrupted by staged applause and “stories of ordinary Americans” with happy ends and Hollywood tears of joy and pride on her face – all is a bizarre, apparently as an experiment – was woven into this seemingly dry academic format.
As a result, the DXY dollar Index has risen slightly from 95.60 to 95,85, but decided to stay, while stock indexes in the first half of the day traded polutorapolnymi increments, on the background of speech trump once pozabili and ended the day with growth in the range of statistical error. And today, amid the expected macroeconomic statistics on GDP and trade balance of the United States, from which few people waiting for pleasant surprises, futures on the S&P 500 actually moved into the red zone. The dollar, accordingly, will reverse the correction and in the best case we will come back to their original positions as of yesterday morning.
Meanwhile, we have today, on the eve of the meeting of the CBR’s monetary policy on Friday, another interesting and important for the positioning of event – placement of the next two tranches of OFZ. The Ministry of Finance announced a proposal to investors Federal bonds total ₽35 billion is the maximum amount of daily supply since the beginning of the year. In principle, given that this week competing to issue coupon bonds of the Bank of Russia was not present at the auction, the probability of covering the whole demand volume with a good oversubscription is very high.
The Ministry plans to place OFZ series 26226 maturing in October 2026 at ₽20 billion and OFZ series 26225 maturing in may 2034 at ₽15 billion Following an auction on placement of OFZ scheduled for February 13th and will be held in the new experimental format. The Ministry of Finance decided to test the market on the subject of “covert unlimited appetite” and promised to temporarily abandon the Declaration of the fixed volume of the offered OFZ.
Against this background, the Russian ruble is almost floating in zero gravity, where in addition to the “gravity of the dollar” other significant natural forces is not defined. As of 11:45 Moscow time, the ruble weakened slightly to mark 65.69 rubles to the dollar, compared to yesterday’s 65,46 rubles to the dollar, continuing to remain inside its trading corridor, delineated by the values 65 and 66 rubles per dollar. Waiting for the annual reports of the Russian steelmakers – MMK and NLMK in accordance with IFRS and, of course, the above formal statistics by state.
“International Financial Center”