The growth of Russian shares can remain until the end of the day

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Thanks to the epic rise of the American indexes and correction of the oil prices, the domestic market traded in positive territory. The main contribution, which is to be expected bring paper the oil and gas sector. The exceptions are the paper of “Gazprom oil”, which traded the first day excluding dividends. Growth of over 2% were shares of “MegaFon” on the ad parameters of the buyback from minority shareholders.
OOO “MegaFon Finans”, daughter of “MegaFon”, after prior notification of the Bank of Russia sent to the parent company mandatory offer to acquire ordinary shares of “MegaFon” in the amount of 131 212 843 pieces for the price of 659,26 rubles apiece. Continued growth of papers “the pole” in the background multi-month highs in gold.
15:15 Moscow time the index of Mobimii has grown by 0.92% to 2330,18 PA, and the RTS 0.55% to 1059,00 p.
The ruble showed a less steady dynamics. By the middle of Moscow trading, the barrel of Brent cost about 3720 rubles. One-day MosPrime rate remained at the level of 7.90%, week — of 8.03% and monthly decreased to 8.26%. The weakness of the ruble is due to the completion of the tax period, growth in demand for currency prior to vacation periods, as well as the weakening of the commodity currencies on the global market. This situation may persist until the end of the year, but in the first quarter we do expect attempts to return to the values around 65-66 per dollar. By 15:15 GMT USD-RUB – 69,31 (+0,9%), EUR-RUB – 78,975 (+1,25%).
The sharp rises typical of bearish markets. In fact, after a mighty increase on Wednesday futures on American indexes are again highlighted in red. Before the start of trading in the US point to the fall of 1.5%. European markets resumed trading, but have not even had time to fully benefit from the rebound Wall Street, as they were sent to red sector. In Italy a new problem with the Bank securities. Banca Carige received a waiver from the majority shareholder on request on liquidity.
Accordingly, the problem of markets has not disappeared, but continue only to focus. The growth rates in dollar imbalances in the sectors and the lack of fresh money makes the markets vulnerable. The yield on the 10-year Treasury obligations of the United States is again reduced, and in European trading, dropped to 2,775%. Similar German bonds showed a yield of 0.24 percent, but in Italian it was $ 2,805%. By 15:15 GMT DAX 10425,19 p. (-1,96%), CAC40 – 4611,69 p. (-0,32%), FTSE 100 6612,12 p. (-1,1%).
Similar dynamics can be observed in the oil. After takeoff the day before quotes are adjusted again. Naturally, in the game remain the same fears of oversupply, which will gradually begin to shrink only from January next year under the decision of OPEC+. Reuters writes that private Iranian companies almost have no problems with the implementation of the oil.
Support quotes can become an American statistic. According to the Reuters poll, the market is waiting for that commercial oil stocks in the US fell last week by 2.7 million barrels. By 15:15 GMT, the February Brent to $53.7 (-1,94%), WTI – $45,39 (-1,80%), gold – $1273,8 (+0,06%), copper – $5915,02 (-0,63%), Nickel – $10745 (-1,33%).
The dollar index was down 0.26% to 96,315 p. CAD, NZD, AUD weakened in the range of 0.3% against the greenback. By 15:15 GMT EUR-USD – $1,139 (+0,35%), GBP-USD – $1,263 (-0,02%), USD-JPY – 110,83 (-0,48%).
Formal statistics are as follows:
at 16:30 GMT — initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States;
at 17:00 GMT — the index of housing prices in the United States;
at 18:00 GMT — consumer confidence index US Conference Board;
at 18:00 GMT — new home sales in the United States.
The situation on foreign markets again deteriorate. There were rumors that the White house consider enacting provisions of an extraordinary nature which would prohibit U.S. organizations and companies use Huawei and ZTE equipment from the beginning of next year. If this happens, such actions are unlikely to promote the fruitfulness of the negotiations, the U.S. and China on trade issues. Accordingly, falling of futures for the American indexes at 1.5% before the start of trading is justified.
There is also the risk that statistics on the us economy will not be published, as the government works on the truncated scheme. The growth of the Russian market may persist until the end of the day. However, fuel is not the external situation, and new year weakening of the ruble.
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Andrei Kochetkov,
Senior analyst,
“Opening Broker”